tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1695280310697378421.post2140959835713892531..comments2024-03-25T02:15:02.505-07:00Comments on Nancy's Blog: Recessionadminhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11442349453021015062noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1695280310697378421.post-91310076811040227202008-11-15T14:35:00.000-08:002008-11-15T14:35:00.000-08:00"Cause & Effect, Chain of Events,All of t..."Cause & Effect, Chain of Events,<BR/>All of this Chaos makes perfect sense...."<BR/><BR/>I can't remember the title, but I read a book a year or two ago describing how Back In The Day people would not necessarily believe that they had to do exactly one task for their entire careers. When more valuable work needed doing, workers who were willing to do it stepped up to the plate. This did require a kind of mental flexibility that maybe got ground down after the industrial revolution. The trade unions didn't help either; why would they encourage people to learn skills outside their one specialization when that meant a possible drop in dues and clout? <BR/><BR/>I recently spoke with a few plumbers and electricians. There is one camp that complains and moans about "the economy" and "this right-to-work state" after having expected tomorrow's tomorrows to be the same as yesterday's yesterdays. The other grouping realized that a changing environment requires changes in business tactics. They don't complain about the lack of new construction to drive their businesses, rather they go repair older homes and buildings and enjoy the security that comes with flexibility.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16962224347551157239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1695280310697378421.post-74076607075931877942008-11-15T10:00:00.000-08:002008-11-15T10:00:00.000-08:00here there aren't the foreclosures common in the U...<I>here there aren't the foreclosures common in the U.S., with people evicted from their homes</I><BR/><BR/>Perhaps there were no programs to push people into mortgages that they couldn't afford. <BR/><BR/>(Suppose it were discovered that married people lived longer, happier, and healthier lives. Would anyone suppose that a government program to inveigle people into marriage would increase our store of happiness?) <BR/><BR/>All bubbles burst; but how they burst depends on the individual circumstances. The dot.com bubble did not have the same impact as the mortgage bubble, let alone the stock bubble of 1929, because fewer people were involved. <BR/><BR/>I think the tendency when things are going well is to do more of the thing that seems to be going well. When railroads were the big thing, it was logical to build another railroad and get in on it. But because of the time lag in the system between actions and consequences, this meant that people continued to build railroads well after the marginal rate of return had peaked. Is there really economic niche space for a <I>fifth</I> railroad between Chicago and Detroit? It is the rhythm of this build-prosper-overbuild-bust cycle that accounts for these things happening every 18-20 years. <BR/><BR/>In the current case, there was a concerted government effort to get more and more people into home ownership. That this was a confusion of effect with cause went unnoticed save by Jane Jacobs, Nicholas Taleb, the Wall Street Journal, and a few others.TheOFloinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14756711106266484327noreply@blogger.com