My novella "The Erdmann Nexus" has been nominated for a Hugo. Naturally, this pleases me enormously. However, I do not expect to win. No, this is not a posturing humility -- I have three sound reasons for my non-expectation. First is that I am against some very tough competition: Ian McDonald, who is one of the best SF writers alive; Cory Doctorow (with Benjamin Rosenbaum), who is a rising star; and Charles Coleman Finlay and Robert Reed. I hear especially good things about the Finlay, which I haven't read yet.
Second, I sometimes win Nebulas, but I lose Hugos. It's a different voting crowd. "The Erdmann Nexus" takes place in an old-age assisted-living facility, with (mostly) elderly characters, and I'm not sure that will appeal to the young fans who throng Worldcon.
Third, and perhaps most controversial, is the gender issue. I have looked at the statistics; female writers win more Nebulas than their gender proportion in SFWA -- and far fewer Hugos. This year's ballot includes only four women: me, Kij Johnson, Elizabeth Bear, and Mary Robinette Kowal. There are no women among the novel nominees. Obviously, women do win some Hugos -- I have one, and Connie Willis has 1,078 -- but that's not the way to bet the probabilities.
However -- all together now, in chorus -- "It's an honor just to be nom-in-a-ted."
And it is.